Canada needs to boost home building by 50 per cent to keep up with immigration, report says

[The_Foxer]

Canada needs to boost home building by 50 per cent to keep up with immigration, report says

Canada is on track to break ground on about 210,000 housing units this year, but 100,000 more are needed this year and next

www.theglobeandmail.com

There were 261,849 housing starts last year, according to government data. That is expected to decrease this year because developers postponed product launches when the costs of borrowing and construction soared.

The country is on track to break ground on about 210,000 housing units this year,

We are olympic-level military grade fucked and people just don't realize it yet. When the economy and inflation settle down, housing prices will once again soar as the supply is no where near demand, meaning there's only enough homes for the top earners who can pay. And of course those who bought before the mess or who inherit.

And the thing is this can't be fixed in any kind of short time frame. Once this is done then it doesn't help much in the short term to turn the immigration taps off. It would still take many years to correct and create other problems. And we are gong DOWN in housing starts, not up.

I feel really bad for the kids today who aren't going to be in a position to inheret from their parents. And if people today think rent is bad now - within 5 years you'll pay half hour income for 200 sq ft per person and you'll be happy to get it.

 

[petros]

In otherwords we need to import Mexican tradesmen rather than Indian retail clerks.

 

[The_Foxer]

In otherwords we need to import Mexican tradesmen rather than Indian retail clerks.

well funny enough even that creates problems because the tradesmen will arrive and need homes today but the buildings to house them are about 3 years out given how long the average project takes. So there's a real problem trying to 'import' the labour to solve the problem that we have too many people already.

There's a large number of things that would need to change. And the fact is they are not. In fact they're going the wrong way. And we still have 3 years left (at least) of trudeau's full speed ahead on immigraiton while he's actually hurting home construction with his monetary policy.

Sure, we can begin to reverse it if he loses in 3 years. IF he does. But in those three years the problems will be far worse than they are today and they're pretty bad today.

So this problem probably can't be beat in one generation.

So the days of living alone are probably gone, you'll need at least one paying room mate just to be able to afford rent. And couples will have to both work good jobs just to have a roof over their heads or if they're VERY lucky a small apartment they own.

 

[petros]

Mexicans and central americans will pack 10 into a 600sqft 1 bdrm apartment without complaining while building a 5000sqft house for a Chinese couple. Thats a big problem when they could be building a 5000sqft 8 suite condo complex.

 

[harrylee]

Trouble is, in Ontario anyways, housing costs are so high that no one can afford to rent or buy.

 

[The_Foxer]

Mexicans and central americans will pack 10 into a 600sqft 1 bdrm apartment without complaining while building a 5000sqft house for a Chinese couple. Thats a big problem when they could be building a 5000sqft 8 suite condo complex.

As a developer you're going to look at what makes you the most money and is the least risk. It all comes down to money so it's all about how we incentivize it. There ARE density requirements in some areas that prevent what you're talking about but that's not the way to solve it.

As it is - the moment the house or apartments are ready to be occupied then they're taxed at full rates for property tax. So - in either case, they won't be building a SECOND unit or a SECOND condo complex until the first one is sold and occupied. THey can't afford to build something and have it sit empty.

Which means either way they're not going to ever build enough to keep up with demand no matter which one they build as long as demand is increasing. Which it always is with a growing population (or even a stagnant one).

We have to make serious changes. We have to incentivize building ahead of need not behind it We have to shorten the time between when a project is considered and when it's finished We have to tie immigration into infrastructure and not allow more than we can provide for. We need to move city and development planning to a more provincial level rather than just leave it all with the cities. And it would really help to have a developer's bank of canasda that lent money slightly differently to developers and made it easier for them to build in advance of need.

All of that has to happen, none of it is likely.

 

[spaminator]

 

[petros]

As a developer you're going to look at what makes you the most money and is the least risk. It all comes down to money so it's all about how we incentivize it. There ARE density requirements in some areas that prevent what you're talking about but that's not the way to solve it.

As it is - the moment the house or apartments are ready to be occupied then they're taxed at full rates for property tax. So - in either case, they won't be building a SECOND unit or a SECOND condo complex until the first one is sold and occupied. THey can't afford to build something and have it sit empty.

Which means either way they're not going to ever build enough to keep up with demand no matter which one they build as long as demand is increasing. Which it always is with a growing population (or even a stagnant one).

We have to make serious changes. We have to incentivize building ahead of need not behind it We have to shorten the time between when a project is considered and when it's finished We have to tie immigration into infrastructure and not allow more than we can provide for. We need to move city and development planning to a more provincial level rather than just leave it all with the cities. And it would really help to have a developer's bank of canasda that lent money slightly differently to developers and made it easier for them to build in advance of need.

All of that has to happen, none of it is likely.

Tradesmen are retiring in droves. We need replacements. Fast.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

Well, you're probably already not at replacement level. So close the borders and let the population drop.

Problem solved.

 

[The_Foxer]

Tradesmen are retiring in droves. We need replacements. Fast.

They're retiring but not dying. So the problem remains. IF you replace them with immigration you compound the problem. An immigrant family would have to build 1 home just to account for themselves (and that doesn't make the rest of the problem better), so if you bring in 1000 immigrant families to build homes you immediately fall 1000 homes behind and it takes about 3 years from start of the process to finish to build one right now. And meantime more people are coming in.

And yet you need to replace the retirees as you say and there's not enough people in that trade here in canada.

Quite the vicious circle.

Over time you can correct it. IF you're making changes to make the development capabilities we have now more efficient and make it worth while to build in advance of need. IF you practice very targeted immigration so that the immigrants are those who will require the least amount of housing and specifically fill gaps in our construction labour forces. IF the provinces do better planning instead of leaving everything to the cities.

But none of that is going to even start for some time and will take a long time to fix once it does. Kids in their 20s today will likely be in their 40's before the situation is resolved and owning a home is within reach of the average person (or even average couple) again.

 

[petros]

Why would immigrant carpenters build one home?

 

[The_Foxer]

Why would immigrant carpenters build one home?

If they don't build at least one then a) they're really not helping and b) they have no where to live.

So before they can build any homes for anyone else to help solve the problem, they have to build one for themselves. And considering the length of time that takes currently that means they add to the problem for years before they even begin to help solve it. And the more you bring in the more that gets worse.

So that by itself doesn't really help. It takes movement on all the things i mentioned to resolve the issue and even then it'll take years.

An equally immediate problem is that right now developers are not interested in building in advance of need, they build behind need and that doesn't change even if you have an infinite labour supply.

 

[petros]

So a pile of tradesmen will come to Canada, build one house, give up a $70K a year trades career to do what? Work at Tims taking jobs from overqualified Flip women?

Bullshit.

 

[The_Foxer]

So a pile of tradesmen will come to Canada, build one house, give up a $70K a year trades career to do what? Work at Tims taking jobs from overqualified Flip women?

Bullshit.

IS this going to be another one of those times when you're deliberately too stupid to understand the simple point being made so you create fake arguments that make no sense?

Only a moron of epic proportions would think that anyone said ANYTHING even remotely close to that. You'd have to be 7 different kinds of stupid to pretend that was what you thought was being said. I said before they build a house for others they'd have to build one for themselves first. Which is fucking obvious.

I'll just ignore you from here on out, you're clearly too stupid for this conversation and you'll just get frustrated and ban me because you can't cope.

 

[The_Foxer]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625661340344786944

Considering the liberals don't even consider this to be any kind of crisis i doubt things are going to get much better for people over the next few years. Right now due to the uncertainty of the market the housing supply for sale is a LITTLE better but the rent situation is worse because people aren't buying houses and are still renting. But - with the housing starts slowing down what's going to happen is that when interest rates settle and people flood back into the market housing prices will soar even worse than before and rents will STILL be far too high.

I really don't think people get how bad this can be. THey think 'sure it might be tough to find a home but there's always enough homes so that you can find SOMETHING". but - i think we will be looking at a time where a lot of people honestly can't find a home, never mind afford to buy one.

 

[petros]

IS this going to be another one of those times when you're deliberately too stupid to understand the simple point being made so you create fake arguments that make no sense?

Only a moron of epic proportions would think that anyone said ANYTHING even remotely close to that. You'd have to be 7 different kinds of stupid to pretend that was what you thought was being said. I said before they build a house for others they'd have to build one for themselves first. Which is fucking obvious.

I'll just ignore you from here on out, you're clearly too stupid for this conversation and you'll just get frustrated and ban me because you can't cope.

Yup if cant you grasp a simple concept such as a lack of tradesmen and the need to import them itll go on for weeks.

 

[The_Foxer]

Yup if cant you grasp a simple concept such as a lack of tradesmen and the need to import them itll go on for weeks.

Sorry, i'd love to explain this but you're just too stupid to get it. Maybe next time.

 

[petros]

Too stupid to get what fuck nuts?

 

[The_Foxer]

Too stupid to get what fuck nuts?

Sorry, i'd love to explain this but you're just too stupid to get it. Maybe next time.

 

[petros]

To get what? Speak the fuck up.